Pakistan to Face 15% Water Shortfall in Early Kharif Crop Season

Pakistan’s water regulator has approved a 15 percent water shortfall for the first half of the Kharif 2026 crop season, despite reservoir storage levels reaching a six-year high.

The decision was taken by the Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee during a meeting chaired by Amjad Saeed.

According to the approved framework, the system will face a 15 percent shortfall during early Kharif from April to June 10, which will be reviewed in the first week of May, while the shortfall for late Kharif has been set at 5 percent.

Total provincial water withdrawals for Kharif 2026 have been fixed at 67.451 million acre feet (MAF), compared with 60.558 MAF last year.

Punjab has been allocated 33.357 MAF, Sindh 30.403 MAF, Balochistan 2.868 MAF, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.823 MAF. Despite the projected shortage, Pakistan is entering the crop season with stronger reserves, as system storage stood at 2.307 MAF on March 31, compared with 0.384 MAF in the same period last year.

The committee also raised concerns over sedimentation at the Tarbela Dam, saying the reservoir has lost around 48 percent of its live storage capacity, while live storage has fallen to 5.580 MAF.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast normal to above normal rainfall from April to June, although above normal temperatures may accelerate snowmelt and evaporation.